Marine aquaculture systems rely on services provided by the natural environment to support food production, but the marine environment and the ecosystem services it provides are increasingly affected by climate change. Climate change impacts including decreased oxygen levels, heat waves, increasing incidence of jellyfish and algal blooms, and extreme weather events and storm surges are affecting aquaculture production, fish health, and the welfare of farmed species. Coping strategies, transformational change, and technological solutions may allow farmers and companies to adapt to climate change, but the impact of these adaptations is unknown. We are developing a Bayesian Belief Model (BBN) based on expert elicitation to explore the impacts of climate change adaptations on ecosystem services. Using marine salmon farming as an example, this approach provides a means to explore potential aquaculture futures and identify trade-offs between ecosystem services under different climate change and adaptation scenarios.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/V021613/1).