Abstract
The transition of European Union (EU) aquaculture toward carbon neutrality is critical for meeting climate targets while ensuring food security and sectoral sustainability. This study presents a comprehensive, analysis of historic and predicted future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across five aquaculture production systems (cages, ponds, raceways, recirculating aquaculture systems, and non-fed systems). Emissions were analysed across the full value chain, including feed production and transport, energy use, logistics, and farm operations.
Eight future scenarios were developed to explore emission reduction pathways from 2025 to 2050, ranging from business-as-usual to maximum mitigation. These scenarios incorporate seven key mitigation tools, including renewable energy adoption, emerging low-carbon feed materials, artificial intelligence (AI)-based optimisation, integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA), energy efficiency improvements, system diversification, and expansion of non-fed aquaculture, alongside offsetting mechanisms such as carbon credits and ecosystem restoration.
Results indicate that feed production is the dominant emission source, accounting for approximately more than half of total GHG emissions, followed by energy-intensive grow-out systems, particularly in RAS. While technological and operational innovations can deliver substantial reductions, mitigation measures are insufficient to achieve net-zero emissions due to residual emissions and projected sector growth.
Marginal abatement costs (MACs) vary significantly across systems and time horizons, ranging from ���46 to ���243 per tCO2eq (2026–2030) and stabilising at ���69–���228 per tCO2eq by 2050. Non-fed systems exhibit higher MACs due to initial lower emissions per tonne and the limited applicability of certain technologies, while fed systems rely heavily on upstream decarbonisation of feed and energy supply chains. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA), incorporating economic, environmental, and social dimensions, reveals that scenarios aligned with EU climate targets and those deploying a wide range of mitigation tools perform best overall, although economic constraints and regulatory barriers limit feasibility.
The findings highlight that achieving carbon neutrality in EU aquaculture requires a systemic approach combining full deployment of mitigation technologies, credible carbon offsetting, and coordinated decarbonisation of upstream sectors. Key policy priorities include accelerating renewable energy adoption, fostering innovation in feed and breeding, supporting digitalisation, reforming regulatory frameworks, and developing robust carbon accounting and crediting systems. Without such coordinated action, the sector is unlikely to meet its 2030–2050 climate targets.
Acknowledgment
This work was carried out under a contract funded by the European Union and managed by the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA).
The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of CINEA or of the Commission. Neither CINEA nor the Commission can guarantee theaccuracy of the data included in this study. Neither CINEA, the Commission or any person acting on their behalf may be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained therein.
References
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